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Deception Forecast — the archive.

Every forecast we've published, newest first. Each day's risk level is a nowcast — backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern, with sources. We never invent a number or a "tomorrow."

15 forecasts published. Each level is a transparent editorial judgment — never an algorithmic score. See today's →
  1. Elevated Mon, Oct 5, 2026 Latest
    The FTC is warning that scammers and dishonest marketers ramp up ahead of Open Enrollment, buying search ads and building lookalike web addresses designed to pass for Healthcare.gov or Medicare.gov, and that anyone claiming to be an "official Medicare agent" is a scammer by definition.
    Elevated · a fresh FTC alert renews its annual warning that health insurance scams pick up as Medicare and Marketplace Open Enrollment approaches
    Read the forecast
  2. Elevated Mon, Sep 28, 2026
    The IRS is warning taxpayers, tribal communities, and tax professionals that promoters are selling a "Tribal Tax Credit" with no basis in federal tax law, while the SSA's Office of Inspector General is separately warning that any offer to "boost" your Social Security benefit for an upfront fee is a scam.
    Elevated · The IRS warns that promoters are selling a "Tribal Tax Credit" that does not exist in federal law, while the Social Security Administration's inspector general separately warns about being charged a fee for a promised benefit increase
    Read the forecast
  3. Elevated Mon, Sep 21, 2026
    The FBI is updating a 2022 warning that scammers impersonate law enforcement and government officials over the phone to extort money, reporting nearly 61,000 complaints and more than $1.6 billion in losses since January 2025 — while a separate new FTC alert describes scammers posing as farm equipment dealers to sell tractors that never arrive.
    Elevated · The FBI renews a 2022 warning about law enforcement and government impersonation with new loss figures, alongside a fresh FTC alert about fake farm equipment dealers targeting farmers
    Read the forecast
  4. Elevated Mon, Sep 14, 2026
    The FTC is renewing its September warning that scammers pose as government officials, charities, or contractors after storms and other disasters, while a separate new FTC alert lays out the exact steps to get an intimate image removed if it was shared online without your consent.
    Elevated · National Preparedness Month brings the FTC's annual warning about post-disaster impostors, alongside a fresh FTC alert spelling out how to get a nonconsensual intimate image taken down under the new federal law
    Read the forecast
  5. Elevated Mon, Sep 7, 2026
    The FBI is warning that criminals are targeting prominent people and their contacts with "OAuth consent phishing" — a technique that survives a password change entirely — while the FTC is separately warning that scammers are pasting fake QR codes directly over real ones on parking meters.
    Elevated · a new FBI warning on a password-proof account takeover technique, plus a fresh FTC alert on a physical QR-code swap showing up in parking lots
    Read the forecast
  6. Elevated Mon, Aug 31, 2026
    The FTC is warning that veterans are receiving postcards promising a nonexistent "Veterans Savings Program," a phishing lure dressed up with real VA benefit names — the same week it renewed its standing advice to verify any charity, especially one asking for disaster-relief donations, before giving.
    Elevated · a new FTC alert on postcard scams targeting veterans, plus the FTC's recurring warning to check any charity before you donate to disaster relief
    Read the forecast
  7. Elevated Mon, Aug 24, 2026
    The FTC is warning that dishonest companies buy paid search ads so their site outranks the real one when you look up a company's bill-payment page, then tack on fees you never agreed to — the same week it renewed its warning that an unordered package on your doorstep can carry a QR code built to phish you, not just fake reviews in your name.
    Elevated · two new FTC alerts this week — paid search ads that impersonate a real company's bill-payment page, and a QR-code twist on the unordered-package "brushing" scam
    Read the forecast
  8. Elevated Mon, Aug 17, 2026
    The FBI is warning that criminals are breaking into people's social media and personal accounts — using passwords leaked in old data breaches — specifically to steal and resell explicit photos and videos, while the FTC is flagging a wave of social media ads for steep 'discounts' on brand-name goods that are not vetted by the platforms and often ship counterfeits or nothing at all.
    Elevated · two new alerts this week — account break-ins used to steal and sell intimate images, and fake 'discount' ads impersonating real brands on social media
    Read the forecast
  9. Elevated Fri, Aug 7, 2026
    The FTC's newest alert warns that scammers buy lists of people who've already been scammed and call back as the rescue — a government agency, a law firm, even the FTC itself — while the FBI's standing PSA describes imposters posing as its own complaint center, complete with AI-generated videos and lookalike websites.
    Elevated · the second scam — fake 'recovery help' and FBI imposters are re-targeting people who already lost money
    Read the forecast
  10. Elevated Thu, Jul 23, 2026
    The FTC's newest alert points at the tell that survives every disguise — how scammers ask you to pay — while a $45.9 million student-loan "forgiveness" operation faces a permanent ban from the debt relief industry.
    Elevated · payment-method demands and student-debt-relief imposters in focus
    Read the forecast
  11. Elevated Thu, Jun 25, 2026
    With the 2026 World Cup under way, scammers are spoofing official ticket and hospitality sites — while summer travel scams and a fake-verification malware trick keep circulating.
    Holding at "Elevated" · World Cup ticket and travel scams move into the spotlight
    Read the forecast
  12. Elevated Wed, Jun 24, 2026
    A new "CAPTCHA" malware trick is circulating — fake verification screens that tell you to run keyboard commands — while summer travel scams keep spreading.
    Holding at "Elevated" · a new fake-verification malware trick joins the summer travel wave
    Read the forecast
  13. Elevated Mon, Jun 22, 2026
    Imposter scams lead the pack — new FTC data ties them to $3.5 billion in reported 2025 losses, as summer travel scams keep circulating.
    Holding at "Elevated" · new FTC data puts imposter scams in the spotlight
    Read the forecast
  14. Elevated Sat, Jun 20, 2026
    Summer travel is here — and so are fake rental listings and "too cheap" trip deals.
    Holding at "Elevated" · focus shifts to summer travel & vacation-rental scams
    Read the forecast
  15. Watch Fri, Jun 19, 2026
    Fake tax-refund texts send people to cloned login pages.
    Known pattern · no verified surge signal in the current window
    Read the forecast

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