Mon, Sep 21 Deception Forecast · Monday, September 28, 2026 Mon, Oct 5
Scam risk level
Elevated
Elevated · The IRS warns that promoters are selling a "Tribal Tax Credit" that does not exist in federal law, while the Social Security Administration's inspector general separately warns about being charged a fee for a promised benefit increase
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Elevated
High
Severe
Today's headline threat

The IRS is warning taxpayers, tribal communities, and tax professionals that promoters are selling a "Tribal Tax Credit" with no basis in federal tax law, while the SSA's Office of Inspector General is separately warning that any offer to "boost" your Social Security benefit for an upfront fee is a scam.

Defense move

Never pay a promoter to "buy" a tax credit or to "unlock" a bigger Social Security benefit — verify any credit yourself on IRS.gov and remember SSA never charges a fee to increase what you are owed by law.

This forecast is a nowcast.Every level is backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern — never a guess.

Why it's "Elevated" today

We don't predict the future. This level reflects what is verifiably happening right now.

Verified activity

The IRS (September 18, 2026) warned taxpayers, tribal communities, businesses, and tax professionals about promoters selling fake "Tribal Tax Credits" — also marketed as "Native American Tax Credits" or "Sovereign Tribal Tax Credits" — that do not exist under federal law. Promoters claim a purported agreement lets tribal trust fund payments be "converted" into a personal tax credit; the IRS states no such agreement exists, and taxpayers who claim the credit may face civil and criminal penalties, even if a refund was initially issued.

IRS — IRS warns of tax credit scams targeting the tribal community (September 18, 2026)
Verified activity

The Social Security Administration's Office of the Inspector General (September 21, 2026) warned about scams that begin with an unsolicited call, ad, letter, text, or social-media message claiming someone can "boost," "unlock," or "maximize" a person's Social Security benefit for an upfront fee. SSA OIG states that benefit amounts are set by law based on your earnings record, are never negotiated by phone, and never require a processing or administrative fee — payment demands come by gift card, cryptocurrency, wire transfer, or cash.

SSA Office of the Inspector General — Don't Pay for Promises of Increased SSA Benefits (September 21, 2026)
We never invent a number or a "tomorrow." If we can't source it, we don't raise the level. How we forecast ›

Active right now

The scams behind today's level.

ElevatedFake "Tribal Tax Credit" sold as a tax break

A promoter offers to sell you a tax credit tied to tribal trust funds that will cut your federal tax bill. The IRS says the credit has no basis in the tax code, and claiming it can mean repaying the money plus penalties.

Read the guide
ElevatedPay-to-increase Social Security benefit offers

A caller, text, or ad claims it can "unlock" a bigger Social Security check for an upfront fee. Real benefit amounts are set by law and never require payment to increase.

Editorial, not algorithmic. Risk levels are a transparent editorial judgment based on a published rubric — with sources, never pseudo-precise scores.

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