Sat, Jun 20 Deception Forecast · Monday, June 22, 2026 Wed, Jun 24
Scam risk level
Elevated
Holding at "Elevated" · new FTC data puts imposter scams in the spotlight
Watch
Elevated
High
Severe
Today's headline threat

Imposter scams lead the pack — new FTC data ties them to $3.5 billion in reported 2025 losses, as summer travel scams keep circulating.

Defense move

Slow down on any urgent demand for money or information. Agencies, banks, and even the FTC do not call to demand payment by gift card, wire transfer, or crypto — verify by contacting them yourself.

This forecast is a nowcast.Every level is backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern — never a guess.

Why it's "Elevated" today

We don't predict the future. This level reflects what is verifiably happening right now.

Verified activity

In June 2026, new FTC data showed people reported losing $3.5 billion to imposter scams in 2025 — the most-reported fraud category — with reported losses rising nearly threefold since 2020. Consumer-protection alerts currently flag active imposter variants, including "missed jury duty" warrant-threat calls and scammers posing as the FTC itself to "help" recover lost money.

FTC press release (June 2026): $3.5B reported lost to imposter scams in 2025 · FTC Consumer Alerts
Documented seasonal pattern

Summer travel reliably draws travel, vacation-rental, and ticket scams every year — a recurring, sourced pattern, labeled here as a seasonal factor. Reports to the FTC tied to travel, vacations, and timeshares topped 64,000 in 2025, and authorities warn that AI is making fake travel sites and listings harder to spot.

FTC summer travel alert (June 2026) · AARP travel fraud reporting
We never invent a number or a "tomorrow." If we can't source it, we don't raise the level. How we forecast ›

Active right now

The scams behind today's level.

ElevatedGovernment & agency imposters

Callers and texts pose as the SSA, IRS, a court ("missed jury duty"), or even the FTC, using threats or urgency to pull payment or personal details. Real agencies do not demand gift cards, wire transfers, or crypto.

Read the guide
Elevated"We can recover your money" follow-on scams

After a loss, scammers impersonate officials or the FTC and promise to recover the money for a fee — a second hit on people already targeted. No real agency charges to recover funds.

Read the guide
ElevatedSummer travel & vacation-rental scams

Fake rental listings and "too good" trip deals — increasingly on AI-cloned sites — demand upfront payment by wire, gift card, or crypto for a place that does not exist.

Read the guide
WatchToll & "redelivery" smishing

Texts claiming an unpaid toll or a held parcel ask for a small fee on a cloned page that harvests your card.

Read the guide

Editorial, not algorithmic. Risk levels are a transparent editorial judgment based on a published rubric — with sources, never pseudo-precise scores.

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