Mon, Sep 14 Deception Forecast · Monday, September 21, 2026 Mon, Sep 28
Scam risk level
Elevated
Elevated · The FBI renews a 2022 warning about law enforcement and government impersonation with new loss figures, alongside a fresh FTC alert about fake farm equipment dealers targeting farmers
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Today's headline threat

The FBI is updating a 2022 warning that scammers impersonate law enforcement and government officials over the phone to extort money, reporting nearly 61,000 complaints and more than $1.6 billion in losses since January 2025 — while a separate new FTC alert describes scammers posing as farm equipment dealers to sell tractors that never arrive.

Defense move

Never pay someone claiming to be law enforcement or a government official over the phone; hang up and call the agency back using a number you look up yourself. Before wiring a deposit for a tractor or other equipment, verify the seller through a number you find independently, not the one in the ad.

This forecast is a nowcast.Every level is backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern — never a guess.

Why it's "Elevated" today

We don't predict the future. This level reflects what is verifiably happening right now.

Verified activity

The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center issued PSA 260917 (September 17, 2026), an update to its March 2022 warning on law enforcement and government impersonation. It reports that between January 2025 and July 2026, IC3 received nearly 61,000 complaints of this scam type, with losses of more than $1.6 billion. Scammers spoof real phone numbers, names, and credentials of agencies including IC3 itself, keep victims on the phone, and demand payment by prepaid card, wire, courier, or cash deposited into a cryptocurrency kiosk.

FBI IC3 — Scammers Impersonating Law Enforcement and Government Officials in Fraud Schemes (PSA 260917, September 17, 2026)
Verified activity

A Federal Trade Commission consumer alert (September 15, 2026) describes scammers posing as farm equipment dealers, advertising tractors and other machinery on social media or search results at attractive prices. After contact, the buyer receives a purchase agreement and invoice and is asked to wire a deposit or full payment ahead of a scheduled delivery that never happens. The FTC's advice: verify a listing and its contact details independently before sending any money for equipment you have not inspected in person.

FTC Consumer Alert (September 15, 2026): Scammers are impersonating farm equipment businesses
We never invent a number or a "tomorrow." If we can't source it, we don't raise the level. How we forecast ›

Active right now

The scams behind today's level.

ElevatedLaw enforcement and government official impersonation calls

A caller claiming to be a deputy, marshal, or federal agent says you face arrest unless you pay a fine or fee right now, by gift card, wire, or a crypto ATM. Hang up and call the agency back on a number you look up yourself.

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ElevatedFake farm equipment dealers

A too-good tractor listing leads to a wired deposit and a delivery that never comes. Treat a wire-transfer-only deposit for equipment you have not seen in person as the warning sign it is.

Editorial, not algorithmic. Risk levels are a transparent editorial judgment based on a published rubric — with sources, never pseudo-precise scores.

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