Fri, Aug 7 Deception Forecast · Monday, August 17, 2026 Mon, Aug 24
Scam risk level
Elevated
Elevated · two new alerts this week — account break-ins used to steal and sell intimate images, and fake 'discount' ads impersonating real brands on social media
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Elevated
High
Severe
Today's headline threat

The FBI is warning that criminals are breaking into people's social media and personal accounts — using passwords leaked in old data breaches — specifically to steal and resell explicit photos and videos, while the FTC is flagging a wave of social media ads for steep 'discounts' on brand-name goods that are not vetted by the platforms and often ship counterfeits or nothing at all.

Defense move

Reuse is the doorway for one of these and impulse is the doorway for the other: turn on a passkey or authenticator-app multi-factor login on your main accounts today, and before you tap a too-good discount ad, search the seller's name plus 'scam' or 'review' first.

This forecast is a nowcast.Every level is backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern — never a guess.

Why it's "Elevated" today

We don't predict the future. This level reflects what is verifiably happening right now.

Verified activity

An FBI IC3 public service announcement (August 10, 2026) warns that sexual exploitation actors are illegally accessing victims' social media and personal accounts — both adults and minors — through high-volume password and PIN attempts built from data-breach leaks and open-source information, then stealing and posting the victim's explicit content for sale on criminal marketplaces or through community forums. Victims' names, birthdates, and contact details are often posted alongside the stolen material, exposing them to further harassment. The FBI directs anyone affected to report at ncii.ic3.gov.

FBI IC3 PSA I-081026-PSA (August 10, 2026): Sexual Exploitation Actors Stealing and Leaking Explicit Content
Verified activity

An FTC consumer alert (August 10, 2026) warns that social media platforms don't thoroughly vet the ads or advertisers shown to users, and scammers exploit that gap by advertising steep discounts on brand-name products — sometimes using the real brand's own imagery — that turn out to be counterfeits, the wrong item, or nothing at all after payment. The FTC's advice: research the seller outside the platform before buying, pay by credit card for the strongest protection, and treat a demand for gift cards, wire transfer, payment apps, or cryptocurrency as a hard stop.

FTC Consumer Alert (August 10, 2026): Are ads on social media vetted or checked for scams? Here's what to know
We never invent a number or a "tomorrow." If we can't source it, we don't raise the level. How we forecast ›

Active right now

The scams behind today's level.

ElevatedAccount break-ins used to harvest and sell explicit content

Attackers reuse leaked passwords at scale to break into social media and personal accounts, then steal — and sell — any explicit photos or video they find, adults and minors alike. The single strongest lock is unique passwords plus phishing-resistant multi-factor authentication on every account that could hold sensitive content.

Read the guide
WatchIf it has already happened to you

Do not pay, do not go silent, and do not delete the evidence. Block the account, save everything, and report it — the shame is the weapon, and it loses its power the moment someone else knows.

Read the guide
ElevatedUnvetted 'discount' ads on social media

Steep discounts on brand-name goods, sometimes using the real brand's own photos, are running as paid social ads that platforms do not verify. Buyers report counterfeits, the wrong item, or nothing shipped at all.

Read the guide
WatchWhat arrives instead of what you ordered

When a "bargain" ships, what shows up is sometimes a counterfeit that can carry its own safety risks — from mislabeled ingredients in supplements to substandard electronics.

Read the guide

Editorial, not algorithmic. Risk levels are a transparent editorial judgment based on a published rubric — with sources, never pseudo-precise scores.

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