Thu, Jul 23 Deception Forecast · Friday, August 7, 2026
Scam risk level
Elevated
Elevated · the second scam — fake 'recovery help' and FBI imposters are re-targeting people who already lost money
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Elevated
High
Severe
Today's headline threat

The FTC's newest alert warns that scammers buy lists of people who've already been scammed and call back as the rescue — a government agency, a law firm, even the FTC itself — while the FBI's standing PSA describes imposters posing as its own complaint center, complete with AI-generated videos and lookalike websites.

Defense move

No one legitimate charges an upfront fee to get your money back, and the real IC3 never calls, emails, or DMs you first. If the "help" contacted you, the help is the second scam.

This forecast is a nowcast.Every level is backed by verified activity or a documented seasonal pattern — never a guess.

Why it's "Elevated" today

We don't predict the future. This level reflects what is verifiably happening right now.

Verified activity

An August 2026 FTC consumer alert warns that refund-and-recovery scammers buy lists of people who've already been scammed and contact them promising to get the money back. To sound trustworthy they claim to be a government agency — even the FTC — a consumer advocacy group, or a law firm, then demand a 'retainer fee,' 'processing fee,' or 'administrative charge,' or ask for financial details to 'deposit the refund.' The FTC's rule is absolute: never pay up front for a refund or for help getting one — no government agency or legitimate organization asks for money or financial information to return what you lost.

FTC Consumer Alert (August 2026): Have you lost money to a scam? Watch for scammers who say they can help
Verified activity

The FBI's updated public service announcement (July 20, 2026) describes an ongoing scheme in which criminals impersonate the FBI's own Internet Crime Complaint Center: AI-generated videos of purported officials, spoofed IC3-lookalike complaint websites that harvest names, phone numbers, and loss amounts, and direct outreach to prior fraud victims offering to 'update' their complaints. The FBI is unambiguous: 'IC3 will never directly communicate with individuals via phone, email, social media, phone apps, online chat, or public forums.' Type ic3.gov yourself and skip sponsored search results.

FBI IC3 PSA I-072026-PSA (July 20, 2026): FBI Warns of Scammers Impersonating the IC3
We never invent a number or a "tomorrow." If we can't source it, we don't raise the level. How we forecast ›

Active right now

The scams behind today's level.

ElevatedRefund & 'recovery help' imposters

They already know what you lost, because your name is on a victim list. The pitch is a refund, a recovered prize, or seized crypto — after a fee. Paying to get your money back is how you lose it twice.

Read the guide
ElevatedFBI & IC3 imposters re-targeting scam victims

Callers, emails, and video chats claim to be FBI personnel handling your fraud complaint, backed by AI-generated videos and cloned IC3 websites. The real IC3 takes reports at ic3.gov — and never initiates contact with you.

Read the guide
WatchSpoofed complaint and support sites in search results

The FBI's PSA flags lookalike complaint portals reached through search — often via sponsored results — that exist only to harvest personal information. Type official .gov addresses yourself instead of searching for them.

Read the guide

Editorial, not algorithmic. Risk levels are a transparent editorial judgment based on a published rubric — with sources, never pseudo-precise scores.

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